{"id":134,"date":"2018-02-26T00:01:52","date_gmt":"2018-02-26T00:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/?p=134"},"modified":"2018-02-26T00:06:34","modified_gmt":"2018-02-26T00:06:34","slug":"first-solar-keep-an-eye-on-this-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/26\/first-solar-keep-an-eye-on-this-one\/","title":{"rendered":"First Solar &#8211; Keep an eye on this one"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) released their Q4 results last week. Although operating profit was\u00a0higher than expected for the quarter,\u00a0revenue came in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.streetinsider.com\/Earnings\/First+Solar+%28FSLR%29+Tops+Q4+EPS+by+6c%2C+Offers+Guidance\/13852694.html\">under $100m\u00a0below expectations.<\/a>\u00a0On Friday, investors punished the share\u00a0as a result and\u00a0shares ended nearly 7% down.\u00a0More drops like this may also be on the horizon, but could this share eventually charge higher in the coming months and years?<\/p>\n<p>First Solar Inc was founded in 1999 and designs and manufactures solar modules. The current strategy is comprised of 2 main segments &#8211; module sales &amp; systems. Module sales are simply solar modules that are sold to other companies, whereas systems is primarily around project based work where First Solar is responsible for the development of various solar based projects. For systems, revenue can be inconsistent and margins can vary.\u00a0At the moment, the module sales comprise of only 20-25% of sales, vs system sales that make up the majority. Over the next 3 years however, the company is looking to become more focused on module sales as opposed to system sales.<\/p>\n<p>Although the company was founded in 1999, the company didn&#8217;t become a publicly traded company until 2006.\u00a0Since then,\u00a0the share prices has had some lofty highs. The share price even reached as high as 260+. Over the past couple of years however, the share price has fluctuated\u00a0between\u00a0 20\u00a0and 70 almost like a yo-yo (see chart below).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-157 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/firstsolar_chart-300x72.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"596\" height=\"143\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/firstsolar_chart-300x72.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/firstsolar_chart-766x185.jpg 766w, https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/firstsolar_chart-1024x247.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/firstsolar_chart-788x190.jpg 788w, https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/firstsolar_chart.jpg 758w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 596px) 100vw, 596px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>From the chart, it looks as though we are at the top of a cycle about to enter another downturn.\u00a0 It would appear that the negative Q4 results\u00a0could be a catalyst for a possible downturn.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s\u00a0dig a bit deeper though and\u00a0take a look at what the numbers from the <a href=\"http:\/\/investor.firstsolar.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/first-solar-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-full-year-2017\">FY report<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>FY2017 revenue of $2.9 billion<\/li>\n<li>Cash and marketable securities of $3 billion<\/li>\n<li>2018\u00a0 forecast has been raised to $130 &#8211; $180\u00a0mln in operating profit\u00a0although capital expenditures has also been raised to\u00a0$700 and $800 million<\/li>\n<li>Current market capitalization of $6.45 billion<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One thing that stands out here is the cash position\u00a0of the company. The company has roughly $3 billion in cash &amp; marketable securities!\u00a0There aren&#8217;t many solar\u00a0based companies out there with these sort of numbers. Indeed, in the FY report, mention is made of First Solar&#8217;s balance sheet as being one the\u00a0most solid\u00a0in the business.<\/p>\n<p>Now, let&#8217;s take a look at the\u00a0potential revenue\u00a0First Solar\u00a0could be generating in a few years time. The company is looking to\u00a0shift focus so that the majority of revenue in a couple of years time is generated from module sales.<\/p>\n<p>Based on the company&#8217;s investor plan,\u00a0the company has forecasted 2020 production\u00a0capacity to\u00a0be double that of 2018 (~6 GW in 2020 vs ~3GW in 2018). The forecast from the company investor\u00a0presentation suggests that $2.9 billion will be generated from 3GW capacity in 2018. Taking a simplistic view of the numbers, if 3GW output for 2018 produces $2.9 billion in revenue with $130 &#8211; $180 mln operating profit, roughly 6GW\u00a0in 2020 should produce roughly double this number.\u00a0However, recognize that for 2018,\u00a0the $130 &#8211; $150 mln in operating income is produced taking into account\u00a0certain costs\u00a0(the company has pencilled in $110 million for production start up expense + $70 million for restructuring and ramp up costs).\u00a0 Without these costs\u00a0the $130-$180 million then transforms into a number more like ~$310-$360 million, This is at 3GW production capacity. In 2020, we&#8217;re taking about double the production capacity. (i.e numbers like $610\u00a0mn\u00a0&#8211; $720 mn. Of course, the above includes a lot of assumptions, but at 10X multiple, you can see why\u00a0the current $6.54 bn valuation\u00a0may be considered an OK valuation. Granted, this does not take into account the cash sitting on the balance sheet, so it could be argued that the company may be slightly undervalued.<\/p>\n<p>Personally\u00a0though, if I was looking for near term gains, I\u00a0would not purchase the share right now, as I suspect that the share may dip some more because of the disappointing Q4 results. If however, the share manages to venture into &lt;$40 territory, I would definitely take another look.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Likes<br \/>\n<\/strong>$3 Billion balance sheet<br \/>\nMoving to strategy of majority module sales<br \/>\n6GW capacity in 2020<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dislikes<br \/>\n<\/strong>Share goes through cycles &#8211; possibly because of the unpredictability of systems sales<br \/>\nRisk that 6GW capacity won&#8217;t be reached<\/p>\n<p>As always though, please do your own research before buying\/selling this share; the opinions above are only my personal views.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) released their Q4 results last week. Although operating profit was\u00a0higher than expected for the quarter,\u00a0revenue came in under $100m\u00a0below expectations.\u00a0On Friday, investors punished the share\u00a0as a result and\u00a0shares ended nearly 7% down.\u00a0More drops like this may also be on the horizon, but could this share eventually charge higher in the coming months [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-companies"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=134"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":164,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134\/revisions\/164"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=134"},{"taxonomy":"offerexpiration","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cheapertrader.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/offerexpiration?post=134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}